Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Byron Nelson Picks

The Byron Nelson is notorious for breeding first time winners on tour. Jason Day, Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley just to name a few. I’m not placing a lot of emphasis on experience this week but rather seeking the hot hand and players that are overdue for a win. Louis Oosthuizen is overdue for a win and has been knocking in the door but has yet to seal the deal on American soil. This par 70 track should set up to his liking. Adam Scott hasn’t even hit his stride yet this year and still finished 15th at Sawgrass. Scott loves playing in Texas and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he gets win #4 in the lone star state this week. I don’t think he’ll win this week but I can’t leave Phil Mickelson on the bench. Lefty is simply playing too consistent right now and also has good history on this track. Certainly Carl Petterson has to be considered one of the hottest hands on tour right now with three top tens, including a win, in his last five events. Finished 4th here in 2008.

Jeff Overton has a great track record at the Nelson and his game is rounding into shape. Something about this track brings out the best on Arjun Atwal. His last two years at this venue have produced 7th and 8th place finishes. Atwal also needs a good finish as he’s playing to keep his card this year. Jhonattan Vegas impressed me last week at the Players. He seemed to play with a sense of calm about him that I’ve never seen before. This is kind of a hunch pick but Vegas could surprise this week. Charles Howell III has slowed down a bit since his great start to 2012. Before his recent two MC’s he had six top 20 finishes this year. Chucky likes the course and would love nothing more than to get another win this week and end his drought.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – The Players Championship

Roll out the red carpet it’s the Players Championship this week. Not even the Masters pampers the players like they do here in Ponte Vedra. When the players arrive on the 1st tee however the pampering stops and Pete Dye takes over. Like most Pete Dye layouts TPC Sawgrass is a shot maker’s course. When speaking of shot makers the first person who comes to mind has got to be Luke Donald. By Luke’s standards his 2012 season is starting off somewhat lackluster. The PGA Tour scrambling leader however is due for a win and finished 4th here last year. Nick Watney improved on his 17th place finish here in 2010 with a 4th here last year. Showed signs of turning things around last week in Charlotte. Sticking with the shot makers I just have to go with Steve Stricker. Stricker is teeing it up for the 16th time at this event and has 6 top 25’s including 12th last year. Stricker has the perfect game for this course and I’m surprised he has never won here. The only “golf boys” member without a win this year is Ben Crane. Crane finished 6th, 5th, 4th in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. As long as you’re not playing behind him what’s not to like. Honorable mention this week would be Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia and Robert Karlsson.

JB Holmes only has two top tens this year but has been the picture of consistency at TPC Sawgrass. 6th, 13th 10th and 16th in the last five years. JB is the dark horse for this course. Usually I would pick a guy with a bit more experience but Chris Stroud fits the bill this week. Stroud is a great ball striker and finished 12th and 10th the last two years here. Ryan Moore is turning up the heat lately with three top tens in his last four events. Moore has had success here and should be in contention come Sunday. Henrik Stenson is the bargain basement special of the week. With a win and runner up at this course you won’t find a better deal at the $500,000 price tag. Honorable mention dark horses this week would be local resident Bud Cauley, Robert Allenby and DA Points.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow has been chosen for the 2017 PGA Championship which should be an indication that this course has teeth. Fairways are hard to hit, greens are huge and undulating and the course can stretch out to over 7,500 yards. Having personally played this course I can tell you it’s certainly a beast for the average hack like me. My first pick this week is easy. Jim Furyk simply loves this course and has proven it with finishes of 2-1-Cut-7-11-7-24 the last seven years. You can look all you want but won’t find a better value than Jimbo this week. Almost as easy of a pick is Phil Mickelson. Lefty has yet to win at this venue but has been very close. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Lefty add another trophy to his collection this week. Zach Johnson has played this course very well in the past with finishes of 6-11-25 in his last three trips to Charlotte. Zach has been rounding into form as of late and should be in the hunt. The last pick here was a tough one but I’m going with Keegan Bradley on a hunch. Keegs was very lackluster last week missing his first cut of the season. A tough course like Quail Hollow should be just what the doctor ordered to get back on track.

Everybody below #50 on the OWGR that I looked at this week seems to have won a tournament this year or last. Who made up these dark horse rules anyway? So needless to say pickins are slim for dark horses this week. One player who grabs my attention is Chris Stroud. Stroud has five top 25’s in his last six events and currently sits 16th in strokes gained putting. Jeff Overton has made my list several times this year and disappointed. I’m giving him one last chance for redemption. Cameron Tringale is an obvious dark horse pick this week and has been outplaying many elite golfers with finishes of 8-8-7 in his last three starts. Brendon de Jonge finished 4th here back in 2009 and showed some signs of life last week in Nawlans with a T18.

Players I would have picked as dark horses if they didn’t win last year? JByrd, O’Hair, Glover and Sabo. Good luck this week peeps. Keep an eye out for Kerby on TV this week.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Pros Picks for the Zurich Classic

Off we go to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. We have a slightly better field this week but dark horses are still very plentiful. One guy that is flying way under the radar this week is Nick Watney. This course sets up well for the 2007 champion and it’s only a matter of time before Watts comes to life in 2012. Jason Dufner has six top 25’s so far this year, hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony and has finished in the top ten 3 years in a row at this event. Take Dufner with confidence over higher salary players. Steve Stricker has cooled off a bit since winning the season opener but you can never count him out. He has good history at this course and it suits his game well. Keegan Bradley is teeing it up for the first time in New Orleans but that shouldn’t matter. Keegs is playing superb golf this year and seems to play even better on tougher tracks. ***Fair Warning Alert*** Stay away from Luke Donald this week. The 2011 Player of the Year is not striking it very well lately and should be avoided until he proves otherwise.

Jeff Overton has two top fives in his last four starts and has good history in New Orleans. Overton should be flying under the radar this week which can be just the nugget you need to move up a rung or two in your league. Cameron Tringale is coming off two consecutive 8th place finishes and heads to a venue where he finished 18th last year. Play the hot hand. Hunter Haas impressed me last week at the Valero Texas Open with his 8th place finish. He can make birdies with the best of them and likes this course a lot. Bud Cauley is becoming a regular fixture on my dark horse list. I just can’t ignore his recent form and have to believe he is due for a win soon.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Golfers who WD should be fined and penalized

There were NINE golfers who WD this week at the Valero Texas Open. Nine!!! Are you telling me that all nine of these players got injured or had a tummy ache from too much BBQ??? I beg to differ. None of these guys shot in the 60’s on Thursday and weren’t gonna do it on Friday either. In fact most of the 1st and 2nd round scores from these WD guys were closer to 80 than 70. So can you guess why these guys WD? Because they didn’t want to stick around another day to miss the cut, miss their families, make no money and pay for another nights hotel expenses. Ok maybe to save a little embarrassment from the media as well. I have a huge problem with guys doing this. Not only are they bascially telling the PGA Tour that they will make their own rules but they are taking a spot away from somebody else who is desperately trying to get into tournaments just so he can make a living. I mean it’s bad enough that these guys get pampered from the moment they step foot on the property. Courtesy cars, top notch accomodations, food, concierge, you name it. But shoot one bad round and these guys basically say thanks a lot but I have better things to do!! Up yours with a red hot poker. Nevermind the few fans that may have traveled long distances to see them play. On their own dime mind you. Give me a freakin break fellas!!!! Suck it up and play golf or be severely fined and penalized.

If a golfer WD’s and can’t medically prove he’s sick he should get fined $50,000 and be banned for playing in the next 6 tournaments. (Defending champion or not) Don’t get me wrong I absolutely love the game of golf but this is one aspect of the game that needs to change. Can you imagine Eli Manning walking off the field because he threw a bad pass? How about Lebron James going to the bench because he missed a free throw? Roger Federer retires because hit makes a double fault or loses a set. Cmon boys suck it up or face the consequences. There are guys out there on the Nationwide tour trying to make a living and you’re screwing them out of a spot in the tournament.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Wide Open Masters this year

In recent history I can’t remember a time when so many golfers have a chance at winning the green jacket. Seems like it used to be a three or four man race but not this year. There is so much world wide talent this year it makes picking a winner next to impossible.

Many people seem to favor long hitters at Augusta National. While length certainly doesn’t hurt matters any I think hitting greens and scrambling is much more important. And not just hitting greens but hitting greens in the right places which only comes with experience around Augusta National. (a good experienced caddy doesn’t hurt either). So lets see….Other than Fred Couples I don’t see anyone over the age of 45 having a chance. There hasn’t been a first time winner since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 so first timers are a big longshot and I’m ruling them out. You MUST be able to scramble well around Augusta so I’m ruling out players below 50th in scrambling stats. Obviously you have to be able to putt well so I’m looking for players in the top 25 of strokes gained putting and nobody below 50th in putting average. Anything else…..Oh yeah…..It takes an all around good game to win any major. So I’m looking for guys in the top 25 all around ranking. Let’s see who that leaves us with shall we.
Tiger Woods
Lee Westwood
Bo Van Pelt
Sergio Garcia
Ben Crane
Phil Mickelson
Graeme McDowell
Johnson Wagner
Rory McIlroy

I’m gonna leave Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell and Lee Westwood on the list even though they haven’t played enough PGA Tour events to have their all around stats qualify. So there you have it….The Masters winner is on this list according to my recipe for success around Augusta Masters.

I think everyone would be happy to see this list of names all in the hunt come Sunday. Wouldn’t you. My pick you ask? I’m going with Phil to win his 4th Green Jacket and it would be awesome if he was paired with Tiger on Sunday when he does it.

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Tiger is Back…..BORING

No disrespect to Tiger Woods but this was the most boring tournament of the year. I for one hope Tiger is not all the way “back” just to keep the excitement in golf. The prior seven tournaments this year have all been great shootouts that came down to the wire and I found myself glued to the TV on Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately for Arnold Palmer this tournament was flat out boring and I have already switched over to the UNC vs Kansas game. While I was watching I found myself rooting for Ernie Els to finish 3rd just so he could qualify for the Masters, more so than caring about who was winning the tournament.

I guess winning the same tournament seven times is pretty impressive. However if I was Arnold Palmer I would not invite Tiger anymore!

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Draft Street.com
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Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Statistics, Streaks, or Just Flip a Coin?

If you know me, you’d know that I’ve never really been on the Tiger Woods fan bus.  I have always respected and admired his talent on the golf course, but I’ve found myself drawn to other players that I like to root for.  I’ve decided that my lack of Tiger enthusiasm was due in part for my need to root for the underdog and the idea that Tiger seemed to have enough fans already. 

It wasn’t that long ago that when Tiger was in the field he was the odds on favorite to win every time…and his record proves that there was a reason to pick him – he won, a lot.  Back in 2008, I had a bet with a friend on the WGC match play and he gave me one choice – Tiger or the field.  One guy or 63 guys – and believe it or not, I took Tiger, and won! 

In the past few weeks I’ve really come to appreciate more the success Tiger achieved during his whirlwind period of dominance as I have found it harder and harder to find players to have confidence in week after week. 

Since the Tiger era has faded, no one has really stepped up to the plate to secure that “go to guy” status when looking to pick guys for my fantasy team (sidebar: the only reason Tiger does is due to his low salary – if he were in the $3.5-$4.5 million range, I’m not sure he’d be a lock anymore).  

Even though Kerplookee didn’t use the WGC Match Play Championship, the results are telling as we move into a pre-Masters swing and we need to decide on which players will fit into those salary caps.  Granted, a match play format is different than a 4-day stroke play event, but maybe it shows even more what clutch golf is all about.  Seeing Luke Donald lose in the first round on Wednesday was like seeing Stricker lose last year in the first round.  How does that happen? 

If you believe the commentators and media folks, McIlory only made it as far as he did because the other guy was stinking it up worse than he was rather than it being Rory playing great.  While 2 of the 4 brackets still had the #1 seed in the quarters,  the other 2 had the  9^th seed vs. the 10^th seed and the 4^th seed vs. the 6^th seed  playing for a spot in the semi’s.  The number #1 seeds ended up playing each other in the semi’s but it was Hunter Mahan, a 6^th seed, that won, and Mark Wilson, a 10^th seed, that beat #1 seed Westwood in the 3^rd place match.  The WGC wasn’t exactly a vote of confidence for the best players in the world as we come into a few more events that will include many of these A-listers.

Kerplookee players did have to put their thinking caps on for the Mayakoba Classic this week.  As a “lesser field” event there were no worries about salary caps so the decision is almost one of best of the field or the chance that a rookie or young gun might get hot.  For one of my fantasy teams, I just took the top 10 valued players in the field.  Now I know it might not make sense to consider last year’s results for this year’s event, but I figured what the heck.  Here’s what I found out – 3 of the 10 missed the cut – and after waivering in Chris Stroud, I ended up making about $300K less than the 200^th place finisher last week.  Not so good. 

I read a couple of comments in the forums that maybe it’s just as smart to throw darts at names since research and stats haven’t really paid off this year.  I’d wonder if people could really do that versus going with their gut, or in my case, my heart.  Maybe the solution is a little of everything.

It seems to me that just when we think we’ve found “the next Tiger”, it doesn’t take long for that player to give us reason to doubt it.  I believe the bar has lowered and that gives more guys the chance to claw their way to the top…the question is, for how long?  And as fantasy golfers, we now have to wonder if we need to focus on the guys on the way up or if the guys on top can continue to stay there.   I’m hoping I can start finding that right combination soon!

by Cathy Erickson teetogreen.com

Kerplookee Fantasy Golf – Time to start thinking about golf again.

Well the first full field event of 2012 is under way in Hawaii and the smell of freshly mowed grass is in the air. I don’t know about you guys but I have a slighlty difficult time getting geared up for golf in 30 degree weather and I know some of my friends in Minnesota feel my pain.

One thing I like to do this time of year however is start to figure out which guys are going to make their mark on the PGA tour this year. Which Nationwide tour graduates will hold their own. Which ones will win a tournament and which ones have staying power and keep their cards. Last year it was Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson and Jason Duffner. This year who knows….Perhaps Bud Cauley, Kyle Stanley or first round leader Graham DeLaet. Or perhaps one of the guys I watched at the Cardinal Amateur right here in my backyard a few years ago……Kyle Reifers or William McGirt. Or just maybe Jeff Maggert or Tim Herron can catch lightning in a bottle and rise to the top again. Any of these options are possible along with a plethera of others of course.

What do you guys think? Who is your dark horse pick this year?

One thing is for sure. It’s not going to be me!